Spatially explicit seasonal forecasting using fuzzy spatiotemporal clustering of long-term daily rainfall and temperature data

International audienceA major limitation of statistical forecasts for specific weather station sites is that they are not spatial in the true sense. And while spatial predictions have been studied, their results have indicated a lack of seasonality. Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are spatial, but their spatial resolution is rather coarse. Here we propose spatially explicit seasonal forecasting, based on the Fuzzy Classification of long-term (40 years) daily rainfall and temperature data to create climate memberships over time and location. Data were obtained from weather stations across south-east Australia, covering sub-tropical to arid climate zones. Class memberships were used to produce seasonal predictions using correlations with climate drivers and a regression rules approach. Therefore, this model includes both local climate feedback and the continental drivers. The developed seasonal forecasting model predicts rainfall and temperature reasonably accurately. The final 6-month forecast for average maximum temperature and rainfall produced relative errors of 0.89 and 0.56 and Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.82, respectively

Investigating the Influences of Task Demand and Reward on Cardiac Pre-Ejection Period (PEP) Reactivity During a Speech-in-Noise Task

Objectives: Effort investment during listening varies as a function of task demand and motivation. Several studies have manipulated both these factors to elicit and measure changes in effort associated with listening. The cardiac pre-ejection period (PEP) is a relatively novel measure in the field of cognitive hearing science. This measure, which reflects sympathetic nervous system activity on the heart, has previously been implemented during a tone discrimination task but not during a speech-in-noise task. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to explore the influences of signal to noise ratio (SNR) and monetary reward level on PEP reactivity during a speech-in-noise task. Design: Thirty-two participants with normal hearing (mean age = 22.22 years, SD = 3.03) were recruited at VU University Medical Center. Participants completed a Dutch speech-in-noise test with a single-interfering-talker masking noise. Six fixed SNRs, selected to span the entire psychometric performance curve, were presented in a block-wise fashion. Participants could earn a low (€0.20) or high (€5.00) reward by obtaining a score of ≥70% of words correct in each block. The authors analyzed PEP reactivity: the change in PEP measured during the task, relative to the baseline during rest. Two separate methods of PEP analysis were used, one including data from the whole task block and the other including data obtained during presentation of the target sentences only. After each block, participants rated their effort investment, performance, tendency to give up, and the perceived difficulty of the task. They also completed the need for recovery questionnaire and the reading span test, which are indices of additional factors (fatigue and working memory capacity, respectively) that are known to influence listening effort. Results: Average sentence perception scores ranged from 2.73 to 91.62%, revealing a significant effect of SNR. In addition, an improvement in performance was elicited by the high, compared to the low reward level. A linear relationship between SNR and PEP reactivity was demonstrated: at the lower SNRs PEP reactivity was the most negative, indicating greater effort investment compared to the higher SNRs. The target stimuli method of PEP analysis was more sensitive to this effect than the block-wise method. Contrary to expectations, no significant impact of reward on PEP reactivity was found in the present dataset. Also, there was no physiological evidence that participants were disengaged, even when performance was poor. A significant correlation between need for recovery scores and average PEP reactivity was demonstrated, indicating that a lower need for recovery was associated with less effort investment. Conclusions: This study successfully implemented the measurement of PEP during a standard speech-in-noise test and included two distinct methods of PEP analysis. The results revealed for the first time that PEP reactivity varies linearly with task demand during a speech-in-noise task, although the effect size was small. No effect of reward on PEP was demonstrated. Finally, participants with a higher need for recovery score invested more effort, as shown by average PEP reactivity, than those with a lower need for recovery score

Social observation increases the cardiovascular response of hearing-impaired listeners during a speech reception task

Certain cardiovascular measures allow for distinction between sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous system activity. Applied during listening, these measures may provide a novel and complementary insight into listening effort. To date, few studies have implemented cardiovascular measures of listening effort and seldom have these included hearing-impaired participants. These studies have generally measured changes in cardiovascular parameters while manipulating environmental factors, such as listening difficulty. Yet, listening effort is also known to be moderated by individual factors, including the importance of performing successfully. In this study, we aimed to manipulate success importance by adding observers to the traditional laboratory set-up. Twenty-nine hearing-impaired participants performed a speech reception task both alone and in the presence of two observers. Auditory stimuli consisted of Danish Hearing in Noise Test (HINT) sentences masked by four-talker babble. Sentences were delivered at two individually adapted signal-to-noise ratios, corresponding to 50 and 80% of sentences correct. We measured change scores, relative to baseline, of pre-ejection period, two indices of heart rate variability, heart rate and blood pressure (systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial pressure). After each condition, participants rated their effort investment, stress, tendency to give up and preference to change the situation to improve audibility. A multivariate analysis revealed that cardiovascular reactivity increased in the presence of the observers, compared to when the task was performed alone. More specifically, systolic, diastolic, and mean arterial blood pressure increased while observed. Interestingly, participants’ subjective ratings were sensitive only to intelligibility level, not the observation state. This study was the first to report results from a range of different cardiovascular variables measured from hearing-impaired participants during a speech reception task. Due to the timing of the observers’ presence, we were not able to conclusively attribute these physiological changes to being task related. Therefore, instead of representing listening effort, we suggest that the increased cardiovascular response detected during observation reveals increased physiological stress associated with potential evaluation

Novel Hendra Virus Variant Detected by Sentinel Surveillance of Horses in Australia

We identified and isolated a novel Hendra virus (HeV) variant not detected by routine testing from a horse in Queensland, Australia, that died from acute illness with signs consistent with HeV infection. Using whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis, we determined the variant had ≈83% nt identity with prototypic HeV. In silico and in vitro comparisons of the receptor-binding protein with prototypic HeV support that the human monoclonal antibody m102.4 used for postexposure prophylaxis and current equine vaccine will be effective against this variant. An updated quantitative PCR developed for routine surveillance resulted in subsequent case detection. Genetic sequence consistency with virus detected in grey-headed flying foxes suggests the variant circulates at least among this species. Studies are needed to determine infection kinetics, pathogenicity, reservoir-species associations, viral-host coevolution, and spillover dynamics for this virus. Surveillance and biosecurity practices should be updated to acknowledge HeV spillover risk across all regions frequented by flying foxes. © 2022 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved

Inhibition of sodium/hydrogen exchanger 3 in the gastrointestinal tract by tenapanor reduces paracellular phosphate permeability

Hyperphosphatemia is common in patients with chronic kidney disease and is increasingly associated with poor clinical outcomes. Current management of hyperphosphatemia with dietary restriction and oral phosphate binders often proves inadequate. Tenapanor, a minimally absorbed, small-molecule inhibitor of the sodium/hydrogen exchanger isoform 3 (NHE3), acts locally in the gastrointestinal tract to inhibit sodium absorption. Because tenapanor also reduces intestinal phosphate absorption, it may have potential as a therapy for hyperphosphatemia. We investigated the mechanism by which tenapanor reduces gastrointestinal phosphate uptake, using in vivo studies in rodents and translational experiments on human small intestinal stem cell–derived enteroid monolayers to model ion transport physiology. We found that tenapanor produces its effect by modulating tight junctions, which increases transepithelial electrical resistance (TEER) and reduces permeability to phosphate, reducing paracellular phosphate absorption. NHE3-deficient monolayers mimicked the phosphate phenotype of tenapanor treatment, and tenapanor did not affect TEER or phosphate flux in the absence of NHE3. Tenapanor also prevents active transcellular phosphate absorption compensation by decreasing the expression of NaPi2b, the major active intestinal phosphate transporter. In healthy human volunteers, tenapanor (15 mg, given twice daily for 4 days) increased stool phosphorus and decreased urinary phosphorus excretion. We determined that tenapanor reduces intestinal phosphate absorption predominantly through reduction of passive paracellular phosphate flux, an effect mediated exclusively via on-target NHE3 inhibition